A few brief thoughts on yesterday’s municipal elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH).
​

1. The results are more or less in line with what was expected: Dodik’s unconstitutional referendum gambit paid off, as the SNSD utterly routed the SDS-led opposition bloc in the RS; the SDA, while actually losing a number of key municipalities, nevertheless remained the biggest vote-getter in the Federation; the left-civic vote, fractured along at least four parties, failed to compete in a meaningful sense against the dominant nationalist blocs.
   
   
2. More alarmingly, these were the most irregular elections in nearly a decade, and possibly since 1996—the first post-war polls. A brawl in Stolac completely suspended voting in the town, while similarly ugly scenes played out in Bihać, Livno, and a handful of other locations both yesterday and in days leading up to the election. Independent observers noted over a hundred “critical incidents,” which is to say, voter fraud. Tellingly, the key architects of the violence and fraud were the main nationalist blocs. This is a reflection of the increasing dissolution of law and order and parliamentary procedure in BiH, and the willingness of the SDA, SNSD, and HDZ to use all means at their disposal to remain in power.
   
   
3. Srebrenica has its first Serb mayor in more than a decade. Yesterday evening’s scenes—drunken youths waving flags, hurling insults and slurs, and the town divided by cordons of police—suggests that we’re in for renewed tensions in BiH’s “open wound.” Expect Dodik and the SNSD to increasingly make the town more and more inhospitable to the large returnee population, as I have previously projected.
   
   
4. Once again, there was no voting in Mostar, one of the largest municipalities in the country. Taken together with the events in Stolac, it’s becoming ever clearer that the SDA and HDZ remain patently authoritarian movements, willing to outright suspend democratic processes, with a preference for resolving debates with fists and explosives rather than ballots.
   
   
5. Speaking of which, the post-election press conferences by Bakir Izetbegović and Milorad Dodik were ominous, indeed. Both men attacked the assembled journalists, spoke venomously of analysts and observers, and dismissed municipalities where they fared poorly as irrelevant backwaters. They spoke more as leaders of militias than democratic blocs.
   
   
6. On the whole, last night did nothing to improve the worsening political climate in the country and the utter chaos of the whole event is another indictment of the international community’s complete abandonment of meaningful democratization projects and processes in BiH, but also the region.
   
   
7. Looking ahead to 2018:
   
   a. It is imperative that the SDP, Democratic Front, Naša Stranka, and Citizen Alliance form a single left bloc. They can delay formal (re)unification but continuing to split the crucial civic vote in BiH is irresponsible and self-sabotaging.
   
   b. The RS opposition has to articulate a meaningful alternative program to the SNSD. Their soft nationalist, “anyone but Dodik” approach has failed. Mladen Bosić and Mladen Ivanić both need to clear the way for young, new leaders in Banja Luka. If they don’t, the SNSD will destroy what little remains of the “Alliance for Change” in 2018—even if Dodik’s party (like the SDA) is hardly the machine “the Baja” would like to have us believe. Still, the nationalists have the more disciplined base, and control the public apparatus after decades of rule, and thus will continue to win any “toss up” vote; challengers need landslides in BiH, and landslides require real campaigns and real programs.   
   
   ​c. After the referendum and these botched polls, alarm bells should be blaring in Brussels and Washington. The country turned a key corner yesterday—not towards the EU, but towards outright illiberal, managed democracy. Democratic processes and norms were always weak in BiH but yesterday was a dark day, even by these standards. At the very least, a statement should be released indicating the conduct of yesterday’s vote was disconcerting and not at all becoming of a (supposedly) soon to be EU candidate state. If Brussels et al cannot manage even this, BiH is in truly dire straits.     

Two years ago I wrote a piece examining the then concurrent social and protest mobilizations in BiH, Ukraine, and Taiwan. Yesterday, developments in Taiwan have given me cause to return to this topic, in particular in relation to the situation in BiH.

One of the major critiques of the plenum movement in BiH was/remains that it failed to coalesce into a political party that could enact "meaningful" political and social change. That argument was and remains bankrupt: it completely ignores the long-term process of political "education" that needs to occur in a society in order for social movements and establishment political actors to exist on a like plateau of social action. More importantly, the argument ignores the way in which the BiH constitutional system is designed to actually prevent participation. The whole point of the Dayton order is reserve political power for ethnic oligarchs. That was the price of peace when the international community brokered its deal with the region's warlords, and it is the price the citizens of BiH continue to pay. Finally, this analysis ignores that the plenums were an accomplishment in and of themselves; the most significant "political moment" (see Sheldon Wolin) in post-war BiH, out of which concrete demands and even legislative changes came.   

That having been said, Taiwan is nevertheless a model for BiH. Yesterday, amid the hoopla of the DPP storming to power and the complete collapse of the KMT, a small "third force" party emerged, winning an impressive five seats in the Legislative Yuan. The success of this "New Power Party" (NPP)--which grew directly out of the student occupations of 2014 a.k.a. the Sunflower Movement--suggests that the vitality of post-authoritarian (and post-conflict) democracy depends vitally on "anti-system" movements. These can, and in the final analysis should, manifest themselves both inside and outside of the official structures.

​Success, however, depends on effective mobilization. There are specific political and historical reasons why the students in Taiwan have been so successful--not only today but going back to the collapse of the old regime, in the first place. Conditions in BiH are doubtlessly different. The essential lesson is the same though: change only happens through participation. And politics happens everywhere, the square as much as the parliament. Finally the perceived contradictions between "inside" and "outside" political actors which too often dominate theoretical and abstract debates are in practice relatively insignificant. Or, at the very least, that in the act of doing, we discover that democratic movements can be multifaceted. Indeed, in this frenetic and creative energy is their strength, not their undoing. 

Photo Source. 

Those who missed my appearance on February 13th, 2014 on HuffPo Live's #WorldBrief program, discussing the current events BiH can view the show below. Our segment begins at around the ten minute mark. Speaking of which, to stay up to date with everything that's going on in the country, please visit our BiH Protest Files site, where we're translating and posting the actual citizen demands coming out of the plena in Tuzla, Saeajevo, Zenica, Bihac and elsewhere.

The situation in BiH is changing rapidly. Numerous cantonal governments have already resigned and we can expect further protests in the coming days. The authorities in BiH have already begun a concerted campaign of disinformation about the causes of these protests and their aims. In an effort to support the struggle of the workers and students in BiH, I am publishing here the English translations of the demands issued by representatives of the people of Tuzla, Sarajevo and Bihac, ably translated by my colleagues Konstantin Kilibarda (Tuzla #1, RS Veteran's Association statement) and Marina Antić (Sarajevo #1-3, Bihac, Mostar, Zenica, Prijedor).  Amila Jašarević' has also been helping, she has translated the statement of the Belgrade Police Union. In the case of the second Tuzla list, it is the official translation emailed to me by the Tuzla Plenum organizers. The original texts can be viewed here, here, here and here. 

Please share these demands widely, copy, paste and disseminate them as you see fit. Change is coming to BiH and we can help be a part of it. 

UPDATE: There is now a dedicated archive of all the declarations, articles and footage we have so far been able to translate located at "Bosnia-Herzegovina Protest Files." Please visit that website for all future update and further information on English-language coverage of the events in BiH. 

Tuzla #1

DECLARATION 7 February 2014. Today in Tuzla a new future is being created! The [local] government has submitted its resignation, which means that the first demand of the protestors has been met and that the conditions for solving existing problems have been attained. Accumulated anger and rage are the causes of aggressive behaviour. The attitude of the authorities has created the conditions for anger and rage to escalate.

Now, in this new situation, we wish to direct the anger and rage into the building of a productive and useful system of government. We call on all citizens to support the realization of the following goals:

(1) Maintaining public order and peace in cooperation with citizens, the police and civil protection, in order to avoid any criminalization, politicization, and any manipulation of the protests.

(2) The establishment of a technical government, composed of expert, non-political, uncompromised members. [They should be people] who have held no position at any level of government and would lead the Canton of Tuzla until the 2014 elections. This government should be required to submit weekly plans and reports about its work and to fulfill its proclaimed goals. The work of the government will be followed by all interested citizens.

(3) Resolving, through an expedited procedure, all questions relating to the privatization of the following firms: Dita, Polihem, Poliolhem, Gumara, and Konjuh. The [government] should:

§  Recognize the seniority and secure health insurance of the workers.

§  Process instances of economic crimes and all those involved in it.

§  Confiscate illegally obtained property.

§  Annul the privatization agreements [for these firms].

§  Prepare a revision of the privatization.

§  Return the factories to the workers and put everything under the control of the public government in order to protect the public interest, and to start production in those factories where it is possible.

(4) Equalizing the pay of government representatives with the pay of workers in the public and private sector.

(5) Eliminating additional payments to government representatives, in addition to their income, as a result of their participation in commissions, committees and other bodies, as well as other irrational and unjustified forms of compensation beyond those that all employees have a right to.

(6) Eliminating salaries for ministers and eventually other state employees following the termination of their mandates.

This declaration is put forward by the workers and citizens of the Tuzla Canton, for the good of all of us.

Tuzla #2

Official Translation

Manifesto of the Plenum of the Citizens of the Tuzla Canton

                                                                   February 9th, 2014

Peaceful protests continue in Tuzla. We issue our support to all the protests in the various cities of Bosnia-Herzegovina. 

The Assembly of the Tuzla Canton, in keeping with its constitutional responsibilities, has all the necessary legal mechanisms at its disposal to ensure the functioning of the government in the interests of the citizens. It is misinformation, which is attempting to mislead the public, that the resignation of the government of Tuzla Canton has created a legal vacuum. 

                                       WE DEMAND:

1.     That the authorities of the Tuzla Canton, in keeping with their constitutional responsibilities, ensure the safety of all participants engaged in the protests.

2.     That the Assembly of the Tuzla Canton, in keeping with its constitutional responsibilities, immediately ensures functioning governance of the territory of the Tuzla Canton with no members of the previous government appointed to it. 

3.     That in cooperation with the Citizens’ Plenum, the Assembly of the Tuzla Canton will appoint an expert government, no later than March 1st, 2014, comprising non-partisan, ethically uncompromised experts.

This Manifesto is issued by the Plenum of the Citizens of the Tuzla Canton, and is for the benefit of us all.

Sarajevo #1

With regards to yesterday’s protests across Bosnia and Herzegovina and the media’s attempt to discredit this justified rebellion, this informal group of citizens and protest participants repeats our demands to the government.

 IN THE NAME OF CITIZENS ON THE STREETS OF SARAJEVO

We declare:

We, the people who went out onto the streets of Sarajevo yesterday, also regret the injuries and damage to properties, but our regret also extends to the factories, public spaces, cultural and scientific institutions, and human lives, all of which were destroyed as a direct result of actions by those (ALL THOSE) in power for, now, over 20 years. We ask our fellow citizens and fellow sufferers not to allow these unpleasant scenes to cloud the fact that this kind of government and those in power have costs us immeasurably more.

We, thus, demand:

-        Unconditional and immediate resignations of both the Sarajevo Canton and the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina governments; and the formation of non-party governments.

-        No measures, of any kind, to be undertaken that would limit peaceful citizen protests.

-        The immediate release of demonstrators, no criminal case filings against them, and an end to the witch hunt of people.

When these demands are met, we can then ask for the start of conversations and actions at all levels of government in order to establish a more socially just order for all social strata; and for all those whose human dignity and material basic needs have been endangered or destroyed by the transitional theft, corruption, nepotism, privatization of public resources, an economic model that favors the rich, and financial arrangements that have destroyed any hope for a society based on social justice and welfare.

To establish such a social justice order, before we undertake any social measures are, we demand an immediate end to the larceny of this society cloaked in politics, and criminal prosecution of those responsible. Only when all of that is complete, can we begin to build something new for all of us. 

Sarajevo #2

This is based on the leaflets being passed around Sarajevo on February 9th, 2014 from a group calling itself "Ja BiH Bunt" ("I'm for Rebellion"). Once again, my thanks to Marina Antić. 

CITIZENS' DEMANDS, GOVERNMENT'S RESPONSIBILITIES

1. Lower salaries and compensation for political functionaries at all levels of government!
2. End compensation with the end of the term!
3. Sell the new car pool and invest that money into development of factories in bankruptcy!
4. Reform and make transparent public expenditures and revenues!
5. Pass the law on property origins!
6. Process the suspects for abuse of power!
7. Invalidate all illegal privatization contracts and establish the responsibilities of authorities.
8. Form an independent anti-corruption commission.
9. Damage resulting from protests cover with that part of revenue intended for compensation of government representatives.
   
   

Sarajevo #3

DECLARATION        

Sarajevo, February 10, 2014

Peaceful protests in Sarajevo are continuing. We support protests in all cities of Bosnia and Herzegovina.

We demand:

1. SECURITY MEASURES

Not taking any steps that would limit the peaceful citizens’ protests. Those in command in agencies of the Sarajevo Canton, must provide security for all protesters, in line with the constitution and the laws.

1. GOVERNMENT OF THE SARAJEVO CANTON

Considering the failures and irresponsible functioning of the government to date, we demand that the formation of the next government is determined on the basis of the result of the Plenum of Sarajevo Citizens.

1. GOVERNMENT OF BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA

Immediate resignation of the entire government, led by the prime minister.

THESE REQUESTS WERE HEARD ON THE STREETS OF SARAJEVO THESE DAYS.

In order to prevent political brokerage, we ask Sarajevo citizens not to enter into negotiations with the government, but rather, following Tuzla’s example, to come to the plenum and open discussion of equals, so as to formulate demands and decisions that will halt the larceny of this society and thereby establish the foundation for a more just order.

THE FIRST PLENUM WILL BE HELD FEBRUARY 12, 2014.

THE TIME AND LOCATION ARE TO BE ANNOUNCED TOMORROW.

The Initiative Committee for organizing the Plenum of Sarajevo Citizens is a temporary, informal group that will cease to exist at the first meeting of the Plenum. 

Bihac

Protesters have sent their list of 13 demands to the Parliament of the Una-Sana Canton:

1. Resignation and replacement of the Una-Sana Canton (USC) government and all directors of public institutions and public enterprises.
2. Appointment of the new government of USC and the new directors, without influence of politics in choice of prime ministers and ministers (professional governance – with public release of biographies and the reasons for their appointment).
3. Matching salaries in the public sector to the industrial sector, so that the highest public sector salary cannot be higher than three average salaries in the industrial sector.
4. Matching salaries in the public sector to the educational/professional level.
5. Public release of documents for tenders in the last 10 years and in the future.
6. Matching levels of budget appropriations for agricultural production in the budgets at all levels of government to the European Union standards.
7. Matching educational standards, at all levels, to the European Union standards.
8. Matching the number of employees in the public sector to the European Union standards.
9. Finalizing construction of the veterans’ building, at the latest by the elections of 2014.
10. Ending all additional privileges for government officials.
11. Ending additional financing of representatives and employees in the administrative institutions, on the basis of various commissions.
12. Ending the salaries and other privileges of all politicians following the end of their term.
13. Immediate end to the use of force by the police toward the protesters and vice versa.
    

Mostar

Radio Sarajevo reports Mostar Demands:

• Resolving the status of workers from destroyed companies.

• Employment of social workers in elementary and high schools.

• Securing the funds for [support of] unemployed mothers.

• Raising and matching social contributions across the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina.

• Right to life.

• Right to work.

• Linear raises of pensions.

• Ending additional financing of representatives and administration employees on the basis of various commissions.

• Ending minister salaries after the end of their term.

• Matching politician compensation with compensation of other employees in public and private sectors.

• Government resignations: prime-minister resignation and resignations of ministers.

Zenica

Zenica Demands February 10th, 2014. Reported here originally. A background-primer to ecological situation in Zenica can be read about here. 

The first demand is for the Cantonal government to fulfill the agreement with students regarding disbursement of stipends, as agreed upon at the end of last year.

1. Limit citizens to one position in case there are adequately educated persons to take up any other positions (this is primarily the case with professors who lecture at several colleges and in several subjects).
2. Disburse new-mothers’ subventions to those who’ve been protesting for several months now.
3. Resolve the status of all workers from companies destroyed in the process of privatization, whose rights were denied.
4. Representatives at all levels of government to stop receiving compensation for work in commissions.
5. Immediate resolution of the air pollution problems in Zenica, in cooperation with federal and local municipality governments.
6. Securing internship/residency work for graduates within six months of graduating, establishment of a program for employing young people who have been unemployed for years, since their graduation and therefore, without work experience; as well as revision of employment practices in the public sector.
7. All government employees to give up 30% of their compensation for the duration of their term, to be escrowed in a common account, in a savings certificate of 4 years’ duration, upon whose maturation it would become public property. This would serve to finance expensive medical procedures for citizens in need, but not for medical treatment in Turkey, Germany or other countries, but for the purpose of educating the local medical professionals, purchasing necessary equipment, so that the need for foreign treatment would be lowered. The focus should be on conditions caused by excessive exposure to sulfur dioxide and other environmentally harmful substances Zenica’s residents have been exposed to.

Prijedor

Here are the clear demands of citizens:

1. We demand resignations of all directors of public institutions in Prijedor!
2. We demand concrete results in the struggle against corruption (autonomous functioning of inspection agencies, frequent inspections of enterprises owned by persons close to the authorities, end to political-based hiring in public institutions)!
3. We demand an increase in employment (resolving the problems of Old Mines in Ljubija)!
4. We demand a public apology from Prijedor’s mayor for all the years of irresponsible management of public goods!
5. We demand realization of all workers’ rights in Prijedor (creating conditions for organizing independent unions in all enterprises in private ownership)!
6. We demand that the old City Hall building not be demolished!
7. We demand an explanation as to why more and more young people are leaving Prijedor and the realization of concrete measures to stop this drain!
8. We demand that the local parliament representatives give up their compensation, which is to be sent to the food pantries in Prijedor and Ljubija!
9. We demand an end to all forms of copayments for health services!
10. We demand no legal/police repercussions for the protesters!

Obtained from representative of today's protests, Žarko Trivunić.

Statement by the Belgrade Police Union

Originally reported here. 

It’s obvious that the example from the west coast of the Drina will be very carefully followed by Serbia’s politicians and its institutions, but especially by the columns of hungry and unemployed citizens. We’re steps away from similar events as our neighbours are now in the midst of—events which we yet have to see the outcome of. After all, we're talking about the region where the bloodiest act of the disintegration of our once shared country took place so we cannot rule out the possibility that the current events might spark a similar 'spring' both in Serbia and our other former sister republics. State institutions should therefore disregard pre-election party interests and take the many warnings that police union representatives have been giving them for years, especially leaders of the Belgrade police union and police chiefs. 

It wouldn't be the first time in history of nations—our own included—if those of whom the authorities expect to protect their seats and positions, if the men in blue joined the debased and wronged citizens when they take to the streets. It's not that long since that happened in Serbia because society then as now had been brought to the brink of collapse while the authorities only thought of themselves. That won't work this time, and if warnings like this one from the ranks of the police are not enough, there will be much more brutal and direct warnings and actions in the streets that no one will be able to stop. Won't be able to, or won't want to—either way, the outcome will be catastrophic.

Declaration by the RS Veterans' Association 

Original reported here. 

The simplistic, naive, and even cynical statement of the Prime Minister of the Government of Republic of Srpska (RS) about how the RS is stable, and, the threatening tone adopted by the RS President - who proclaimed that the state will find the mechanisms necessary for preventing an uprising - will not meet the goals of the ‘Order for Defending the Republic [of Srpksa] from the Spillover of Chaos from the Federation of [Bosnia and Herzegovina].’

Instead, these statements will only stoke flames that have been lit by those in power, who are attempting by any means necessary to preserve a State that is based on crime, corruption, nepotism, and on a horrendous education system whose consequences are already being felt.

As much as they swear by their patriotism, calling ‘traitors’ all those who choose to believe their eyes more than they believe the peacetime pumping of ‘heroic’ chests, we the Veterans of the Army of the Repblic of Srpska will not give them the deed to the Republic, but are calling on them to take the first steps so that ‘the Federation’ doesn’t happen to us.

1. [We demand that the] RS President, in accordance with his constitutional duty to promote unity, should call on the President of the [Fighters Organization of the RS] Pantelija Ćurguz to tender his resignation without further delay, since it was the RS President who appointed him to this position.

For a long-time already, Ćurguz has not represented the majority of unhappy, demobilized veterans of the war, whose discontent culminated when he assented to the humiliating Law on Combatant and Veteran Disability Protection.

If the President of the RS fails to meet this demand by February 15 at 12pm, the Veterans of the Army of the RS will begin signing a petition under the title “SO THAT THE FEDERATION DOESN’T HAPPEN TO US,” which will demand that Ćurguz tenders his resignation. This will be the first demand in a ten point petition.

In the meantime, we call on all officials in our Republic to allow for the participation of the RS Army Veterans Association in all meetings that take place relating to veterans.

2. We demand that the President of the RS recall Ranko Škrbić our ambassador to Belgrade, and to leave him to the judicial organs in order to give us a first sign of good will that as president he is not ignoring his people.

Under this demand we also ask for the uncompromising support of all governing structures and the opposition in firmly standing behind the Ministry of Internal Affairs, in order to prioritize investigations into criminal privatizations and begin an eventual showdown with the tycoons who created empires in our country and abroad at the cost of the suffering workers and by manipulating all of us.

At the moment we don’t want to create demands but to test the will of the RS government, which we have entrusted to them for protection. We want to see if they are really protecting the RS or simply an armed criminal structure and its cronies.

Unlike all salaried republican and state institutions we predicted that “the street [protests] and sticks” would happen, as well as the resignation of the coordinator of all police forces in Bosnia, which we see as an opening for once again placing police reform on the agenda.

Strategy and tactics are above all about military discipline and we understand this very well.

That is why you, the President of the RS, must know that your strategy and your tactics are transparent like the goals of all political leaders in the RS. So smarten up officials, otherwise risk losing the whole army!

{SIGNED} RS Army Veterans Association.

Čekamo uzalud već godinama neki dogovor ili kompromis između vladajućih elita u BiH koji bi definitivno poveo ovo društvo na put prema Evropi. Evropa nama znači prosperitet, vladavinu prava i nadu u zajedničku budućnost. Ali dogovora nema i Evropa nikako da nam se približi. Zašto? Koja nam to karika u lancu  nedostaje?

Politička elita u BiH davno je shvatila da im vječna i prividna kandidatura za članstvo u Evropskoj uniji donosi mnogo više profita i mnogo više slobode nego stvarno članstvo. Takvo članstvo nosi sa sobom očekivanja iz Brisela da će ovdje doći do stvarnih reformi i promjena. U ovoj kvazi-kandidaturi nema ni očekivanja ni odgovornosti, što nam najbolje dokazuje rasprava među tom istom političkom elitom  oko slučaja Sejdić-Finci. Borba se ovdje isključivo vodi za podjelu fotelja, ne za prava građana. A ta prava ne zanimaju ni same EU predstavnike, pogotovo ako ta podjela fotelja može zadovoljiti sve ključne lokalne aktere.

Ali to je već stara priča i u svakom slučaju, što bi popularni bh. reper Frenkie rekao, “ako im i danas vjeruješ, onda si glup.” Nije pitanje više šta se dešava nego šta građani BiH očekivaju da će se dogoditi? Ako vam je dobro, onda ništa. Ali svaka anketa, svaki internet komentar, svaki članak potcrtava  katastrofalno stanje u ovoj zajednici.

Moguće je da to nije apatija već međugeneracijska trauma. Iskustvo raspada SFRJ i rata apsolutno je razbilo u ljudima ideju politike (ustvari, ideju političkog, the political, das Politische) kao društvenog, kolektivnog i zajedničkog projekta. Sa kulturno-socijalne strane, raspad bivše države ostavio je iza sebe samo kosti. A mi još uvijek preživljavamo od trulog mesa, dok gradimo luksuzne hotele i tržnice za turiste po tim istim polomljenim kostima.

Ipak to što nedostaje BiH nije ni odgovorna elita niti neki dogovor između njih. Ono što nam fali je izgubljeno i uništeno u procesu raspada SFRJ. To su građani. Ali građani koji trebaju ne samo da se pojave kao neka društvena jedinica na popisu, ili čak kao neki četvrti konstitutivni narod. Potrebno je baš ono što nedavna anketa UN-a tvrdi da mi nemamo: volja da se borimo sami za sebe i budućnost naše zajednice i naših mladih ljudi.

Dok se građani ne pojave na ulicama, oni i ne postoje. Dok se političari ne boje mase na ulici, i znaju da nije spremna da se pojavi po trgovima i ispred zgradama vlade, onda ni demokratski izbori ne znače ništa. Izbori u kojima elita ne strahuje od naroda samo su rotacija oligarhije. A to je stvarna slika sadašnje BiH.

Slobodno društvo je ono u kojem su građani autonomna, nezavisna sila. Ona sama sebe organizuje i spremna je da insistira i da se bori za svoja prava. Elita koja će vladati odgorovrno mora računati s time da će biti svrgnuta s vlasti ne samo na izborima, već i protestima.

BiH u kojoj građani nisu politički factor neće doživjeti ikakve značajne promjene u skorijoj budućnosti. A zato smo sami mi krivi. Naravno da eliti ovo stanje odgovara i naravno da EU, u kojoj nezadovoljstvo također gori, neće nas ohrabriti da se okupimo i krenemo rušiti njihove “lokalne partnere”. Ali za građane je ovo jedini izlaz iz zamke kleptokratije i oligarhije koja nam uzima dane i godine života.

Momenat kad su se roditelji, djeca, studenti i radnici pojavili ispred zgradama vlade i počeli proteste za JMBG bio je možda i najvažniji posljeratni događaj u historiji ovog društva. Tog dana su političari plakali i bježali kroz prozore. A kad se dokazalo da su se protesti definitivno završili, došli su do sada već klasičnog dogovora. A to je samo još jedan pokušaj da u temelju aparthejd u BiH.

Ova nas budućnost čeka ako ne budemo spremni da sami krojimo svoju sudbinu. Apatija ili trauma, u svakom slučaju ovo stanje je zasluženo ako radije biramo biti kmetovi i etnički subjekti, a ne građani.

Zahvalan sam Nedadu Memiću za pomoć sa ovim tekstom. 

I will run the risk of opining before the final figures for the municipal elections in Kosovo are released but only because the pattern seems so familiar.  

Numbers have been trickling in throughout the day, but as of this writing it appears we are looking at a 47.9% country-wide turnout, sans the municipalities in the North, though as much as 63% in some of the the southern Serb municipalities.  

Voting places in the North have been attacked by right-wing, ultra-nationalists and voting lists stolen. Given the track record of the groups behind these attacks, peoples lives are now likely in danger. We can only speculate how many people voted prior to the attacks, though initial figures seemed to suggest well below 20%, perhaps even below 15%. 

It is pertinent to step back at this juncture and ask what context these elections are taking place in. 

Belgrade's claim on Kosovo, well before these elections, had been definitively signed over by the Nikolic-Vucic administration, whatever other performances they may now put on after the fact. Kosovo, of course, was long gone, but credit to the current administration in Belgrade for having accepted a reality that the supposed liberal Boris Tadic never could. Vucic, in particular, may not be the "liberal" Brussels expected, especially given his past track record: a fundamentalist proponent of the Greater Serbia myth, whose foreign policy, at one point, consisted of "if you kill one Serb, we will kill a hundred Muslims." Perhaps precisely because they had these "radical credentials," Nikolic and Vucic were able to make a more substantive pivot than the "European" Tadic. Quite the make-over, in any case. 

With no serious threat on their right, Nikolic and Vucic are able to move towards the EU, having met the brunt of the international community's expectations, yet preserving in the North of Kosovo enough of a hostage population to prop themselves up as guardians of "Serbdom." If anything, it is Pristina that now runs the risk of appearing as the radicals within these negotiations if they insist on extending their statist, "monopoly of violence" regime to the North, via Police incursions and the like.  

Yet while 5,000 KFOR and 2,000 EULEX troops stationed in Kosovo could not prevent a fistful of goons from jeopardizing the lives of hundreds of people and with a sordid 45% turnout rate in even the functional part of Kosovo, one can nevertheless fully expect the rhetoric from Brussels to be buoyant. Elections, progress, Europe. Whatever we may think of Belgrade and Pristina, at least their leaders know what they're playing for--even if it's often just for personal privileges. Brussels just appears stuck on auto-play. 

After all, in BiH, bit-players like Dragan Covic of the HDZ and Milorad Dodik (both of whom long ago lost the support of Zagreb and Belgrade, respectively) have been able to paralyze reform efforts for years. In the case of Covic, the man who has steadfastly insisted on derailing the Sejdic-Finci case into a fictional "Croat Question," the situation has reached absurd depths. 

For instance, Covic has for years claimed that the (two!) HDZs are the "only legitimate representatives of the Croat people in BiH." Between them, these two parties won in 2010 something like 150,000 votes. Now he claims to have received (illegally, I add) early census numbers that suggest there are 570,000 Croats in BiH. The number, of course, is likely a fabrication but let's suppose it's real: when did receiving 26% of a vote turn one into the "only legitimate representative" of anything? Frustrated by his inability to push through complete fiction as sound public policy, Covic is now openly threatening to return to his past (overt) nationalist practices if the Sejdic-Finci case is not resolved. Again, recall, this from the man who has done his utmost to ensure that at no time were we even in the neighborhood of addressing the substantive aspects of the ECHR decision.  

Yet Covic is a key "partner" of the EU in BiH. As is Dodik, the President of the 49% of BiH most dedicated to ensuring that we all pretend that the expulsion and murder, in some cases, of 90% of the pre-war population in his entity is irrelevant. Especially to his current denunciations of supposed conspiracies to radically alter the demographic picture of the RS. Instead, the EU would prefer to focus on deadlines that are never met and sanctions that are never implemented, in farcical but nevertheless marathon-like constitutional reform efforts--conducted not by accountable parliamentary bodies--but partisan political oligarchs.  

It appears that they've given up the "end of history" narrative everywhere but in Brussels, where the goal of "EU membership" appears as the only possible foreign policy objective conceivable. Don't you want to be Cyprus? they want to say. Or perhaps Greece?  They're confused by the fact that small-time hustlers in Sarajevo, Belgrade and Pristina would rather be Dons than Statesmen [sic]. That they would rather be in the Balkans (?!) than in Europe. 

Why would they want anything else, though? In Serbia, Kosovo and BiH, the elites have all learnt that there's plenty of money and zero accountability in being a perennial not-quite candidate for the glorious Union. In Athens and Nicosia they've just got plundered banks. 

After the "Hour of Europe" ended in the largest foreign policy disaster on the Old Continent since the Second World War, one would have thought policies would have changed. Some patterns might have been recognized. Instead, nearly 30 years after the first bands of thugs began terrorizing eastern Croatia and BiH, these same thugs, realistically speaking, are back in the news.  

But, hey, at least Aleksandar Vucic is now a Progressive!